Description: Predicting Recidivism Using Survival Models by Peter Schmidt, Ann D. Witte Our interest in the statistical modeling of data on the timing of recidivism began in the mid 1970s when we were both junior members of the eco nomics department at the University of North Carolina. FORMAT Paperback LANGUAGE English CONDITION Brand New Publisher Description Our interest in the statistical modeling of data on the timing of recidivism began in the mid 1970s when we were both junior members of the eco nomics department at the University of North Carolina. At that time, methods of analyzing qualitative and limited variables were being developed rapidly in the econometric literature, and we became interested in finding a suitable application for these new methods. Data on the timing of recidivism offered unique and interesting statistical challenges, such as skewness of the distribution and the presence of censoring. Being young and foolish, we decided it would be fun to try something "really" difficult. And, being young and ignorant, we were blissfully unaware of the con current developments in the statistical modeling of survival times that were then appearing in the biostatistics, operations research, and criminological literatures. In the course of some earlier research, we had learned that the North Carolina Department of Correction had an unusually well-developed data base on their inmates. We approached the Department and asked if they would be interested in working with us to develop models that would predict when their former charges would return to their custody. They agreed because they were interested in using such models to evaluate rehabilitative programs and alternative prison management systems and to help project future prison populations. Notes Springer Book Archives Table of Contents 1 Introduction.- Overview.- Prediction in Criminology.- Ethical Issues.- What Sample Should Be Used to Estimate the Model?.- Selection of a Criterion Variable.- Use and Selection of Explanatory Variables.- Selection of a Statistical Model.- What Are Realistic Goals for Prediction?.- The Career Criminal Paradigm.- Previous Use of Survival Analysis in Justice Research.- Preview of Coming Attractions.- 2 Data.- The Nature of the Data.- Definitions of Variables.- Comparisons of Subsamples.- 3 Survey of Statistical Methodology.- Survival Time Models.- Estimation of Survival Time Models.- Predictions Using Survival Time Models.- 4 Simple Models.- Nonparametric Prediction.- The Exponential Distribution.- The Lognormal Model.- The Log-Logistic Model.- The Weibull Model.- The LaGuerre Model.- Conclusions.- 5 Split Population Models.- The Split Exponential Model.- The Split Lognormal Model.- The Split Log-Logistic Model.- The Split Weibull Model.- The Split LaGuerre Model.- Conclusions.- 6 The Proportional Hazards Model.- The Model and Its Estimation.- Results of Estimation.- Predictions From the Proportional Hazards Model.- Conclusions.- 7 Parametric Models With Explanatory Variables.- Models Based on the Exponential Distribution.- Results for Exponential Models.- Predictions From Exponential Models.- Models Based on the Lognormal Distribution.- Results for Lognormal Models.- Predictions From Lognormal Models.- A Model Based on the LaGuerre Distribution.- Conclusions.- 8 Predictions for Nonrandom Samples and for Individuals.- Predictions Across Release Cohorts.- Subsample Predictions.- Individual Predictions.- Conclusions.- 9 Summary and Conclusions.- Summary.- Conclusions.- References.- Author Index. Promotional Springer Book Archives Long Description Our interest in the statistical modeling of data on the timing of recidivism began in the mid 1970s when we were both junior members of the eco Details ISBN1461283434 Author Ann D. Witte Short Title PREDICTING RECIDIVISM USING SU Series Research in Criminology Language English ISBN-10 1461283434 ISBN-13 9781461283430 Media Book Format Paperback Pages 174 Year 2012 Publication Date 2012-07-24 Imprint Springer-Verlag New York Inc. Place of Publication New York, NY Country of Publication United States DOI 10.1007/978-1-4612-3772-3 AU Release Date 2012-07-24 NZ Release Date 2012-07-24 US Release Date 2012-07-24 UK Release Date 2012-07-24 Publisher Springer-Verlag New York Inc. Edition Description Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1988 Alternative 9780387965963 DEWEY 364.3 Illustrations XI, 174 p. Audience Professional & Vocational We've got this At The Nile, if you're looking for it, we've got it. With fast shipping, low prices, friendly service and well over a million items - you're bound to find what you want, at a price you'll love! TheNile_Item_ID:96329923;
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ISBN-13: 9781461283430
Book Title: Predicting Recidivism Using Survival Models
Number of Pages: 174 Pages
Language: English
Publication Name: Predicting Recidivism Using Survival Models
Publisher: Springer-Verlag New York Inc.
Publication Year: 2012
Subject: Psychology
Item Height: 235 mm
Item Weight: 300 g
Type: Textbook
Author: Peter Schmidt, Ann D. Witte
Subject Area: Social Research
Item Width: 155 mm
Format: Paperback
