Description: About this Item The item is a book Paperback The Author Name is Nate Silver The Title is The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't Condition New Other Comments Pages Count - 576. Category - Mathematics Product Description - "One of the more momentous books of the decade."The New York Times Book ReviewNate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a bloggerall by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election.Silver is the founder and editor in chiefof the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the ' prediction paradox': The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success Are they goodor just lucky What patterns have they unraveled And are their forecasts really right He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentaryand dangerousscience.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read. We Use Stock Images Because we have over 2 million items for sale we have to use stock images, this listing does not include the actual image of the item for sale. The purchase of this specific item is made with the understanding that the image shown in this listing is a stock image and not the actual item for sale. For example: some of our stock images include stickers, labels, price tags, hyper stickers, obi's, promotional messages, signatures and or writing which may not be available in the actual item. When possible we will add details of the items we are selling to help buyers know what is included in the item for sale. The details are provided automatically from our central master database and can sometimes be wrong. Books are released in many editions and variations, such as standard edition, re-issue, not for sale, promotional, special edition, limited edition, and many other editions and versions. The Book you receive could be any of these editions or variations. If you are looking for a specific edition or version please contact us to verify what we are selling. Gift IdeasThis is a great Christmas gift idea. Hours of ServiceWe have many warehouses, some of the warehouses process orders seven days a week, but the Administration Support Staff are located at a head office location, outside of the warehouses, and typically work only Monday to Friday. Location ID 9000z iHaveit SKU ID 167247143
Price: 31.75 USD
Location: US
End Time: 2024-11-21T10:44:22.000Z
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Restocking Fee: No
Return shipping will be paid by: Buyer
All returns accepted: Returns Accepted
Item must be returned within: 30 Days
Refund will be given as: Money Back
Fiction/Non-Fiction: Non-Fiction
Genre/Subject: Mathematics
Brand: Penguin Publishing Group
Weight: 0.52
Style: NA
Title: The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some
Release Title: The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some
Record Grading: New
Sleeve Grading: New
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Film/TV Title: The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Som
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Movie/TV Title: The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Som
UPC: 9780143125082
EAN: 9780143125082
ISBN: 9780143125082
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Metal Purity: NA
Metal: NA
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Number of Pages: 576 Pages
Publication Name: Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't
Language: English
Publisher: Penguin Publishing Group
Item Height: 1.1 in
Publication Year: 2015
Subject: Political Process / Campaigns & Elections, Epistemology, Probability & Statistics / General, Future Studies, Forecasting, Probability & Statistics / Bayesian Analysis
Item Weight: 16.6 Oz
Type: Textbook
Subject Area: Mathematics, Political Science, Philosophy, Social Science, Business & Economics
Item Length: 8.4 in
Author: Nate Silver
Item Width: 5.4 in
Format: Trade Paperback
